|
TOUCHSTONES-GOLD® Collaborative Design
Scientific Issues
"Besides, even in the absence of that eagerness and want of thought, (which we have mentioned,) it is the peculiar and perpetual error of the human understanding to be more moved and excited by affirmatives than by negatives, whereas it ought duly and regularly to be impartial; nay, in establishing any true axiom, the negative instance is the most powerful." *
* Francis Bacon, Novum Organum 1620 Basil Montague, ed. and trans. The Works, 3 vols. (Philadelphia: Parry & MacMillan, 1854), 3:343-71; see the web for more on "Novum Organum"
Distinguishing Speculative vs. Controlled Inference
Historical discoveries of fundamental laws have driven scientists to further explain order in the universe. Most often, the practice of science is a reasoned, methodical pursuit to understand a "universe" of possibilities. Questions continuously arise from contradictory evidence, from increasingly precise measurements, from another hypothesis, from the next experiment, from other researchers and from public needs. While scientific fundamentals, facts and findings balance a practical need to "know" with a deeper need to understand, uncertainty is a given in controlled inference. Distinction between speculative and controlled inference should be unnecessary if limitations of research are understood and presented with research results.
Speculative inference may rely on strength of reputation, perpetuation or volume of opinions- all of which can be affirmed, influenced or disputed. Speculative inference may grow from shallow-rooted tangles of multiple hypotheses and may lead to trials of "informed" or "uninformed" opinion. Controlled inference can be clearly recognized by the presentation of a singular scientific trial of the hypothesis- the experiment. The "true axiom" of that experiment- according to Sir Francis Bacon- is the "negative instance." Whether the year is 1620 or 2020, the impartial evaluation and presentation of uncertainty with experimental results advances science from "peculiar and perpetual error of human understanding".
Definition, Relevance and Control of Research
Clear goals and practices are important in day-to-day work and essential for methodical research. Are the subject of research, the hypothesis and experiment well-described at the outset? Are the research and data relevant to the chosen scientific trial? While digression in conversation can be appreciated, research will be limited to a proposed, pre-specified topic. Parameters, characteristics and events can then be explicitly defined at the outset. With methods described, data is drawn from a pre-specified population or "body" of evidence. A compilation of secondary information might conveniently affirm one's preferred evidence, but there is no substitute for original observation and testing.
Pre-specification of an experiment establishes control, defines the scope, provides the framework against which experimental bias, subjective and extraneous influences can be constrained or identified. A "null" hypothesis is matched with an "alternative" hypothesis. A possible scientific outcome is therefore rejected or not rejected. These distinctions set the experiment apart from any suggestive influence of an expected outcome. It keeps the experimenter at an "impartial" distance from the experiment and from other experimenters. The "true" experimental result or value can only be drawn from the pre-specified population. Partial analysis, fitting and presentation of selective, adjustable, or inappropriate runs of data can only perpetuate systematic errors, biases and possibly contrived results.
Thoroughness of Research- Sampling and Repetition
Sampling and testing can never completely characterize a "universe" of possibilities. There is only one chance in many to capture a "true" value or result. Achievement of that "true" result may be elusive and costly, but reduction of uncertainty is usually feasible. Repetitive sampling and testing will distinguish research focused on reduction of uncertainty from speculation.
Comparing the Research
Control and reduction of uncertainty may underlie expectations of fundamental science, but merits of research activity may be more broadly gauged. Socially- and commercially-supported activity might be scored against a host of priorities, programs, allocations, costs, milestones and outcomes. While activity, prioritization and prominence of a research program may foster or constrain a culture of inquiry for particular social and industrial objectives, these objectives may not be easily agreed to, if they are at all comparable. Shells of activity are innumerable, but the "pearl" of science is the experimental outcome. Whatever, the field of discovery, outcomes are usually statistically tested within limits of error and with some measure of dispersion. Limits of error, measures of variability and the number of trials are comparable- if they are presented, if they are prominent.
Communicating the Research
Any estimate or opinion can be presented as a substitute for a true value or result. Facile or speculative approaches can be made more complex, specialized and numerous. On the other hand, methods or data may not be available for review; measures of uncertainty or potential bias may not be presented or may not be known. Outcomes may not be verifiable or comparable. The experiment may not be repeatable. The state of art may be limited to raw data, raw hypotheses, multiple hypotheses, spurious claims, untested claims, incomparable claims and unresolved debates. Public confidence and support for scientific research may be undermined. While the need for fundamental inquiry has always been desirable, perpetually problematic research need not be automatically accepted as scientific progress. The advance of science, of "true axioms" should be marked by presentation and constraint of uncertainty, by the "negative instance"; by constraint of experimental biases, by impartiality.
From Interpretive to Predictive Geoscience- Economic Geology, Geoscience State-of-the-Art Issues and Gold Distributions
As one specialization among several, economic geology draws from geochemistry, mineralogy, igneous petrology, metamorphic petrology, structural geology, geophysics to analyze natural concentration of valuable non-fuel minerals. Within this specialization, mineral deposit modeling has been largely qualitative, hypothetical and taxonomic with variable emphases. The diversity of approaches to explain distributions of gold is of particular interest given its low natural abundance and its historical and economic prominence as a scarce commodity. Repeated challenges to understanding may be driven by new discoveries or notorious "eagerness" associated with this commodity. Fundamental, and larger uncertainties should be expected in the search for small, often invisible concentrations. Exploration of rocks begins from parts per billion of gold, while sometime successful discovery and production will report parts per million, grams per tonne of rock. A multiplicity of interpretations and practioners may reduce some uncertainties- or may add others. These interpretations may be
genetic (origin according to physical conditions prevailing, Lindgren 1933, Emmons 1937);
host rock associated (Boyle 1979, Cox and Singer 1986, Bache 1987, Bonham 1987,1989; Safonov 1997);
geological (nature, mesoscopic attributes of ore; geological settings, Poulsen, Robert and Dube, GSC Ottawa, 2000);
geochemical/mineralogical (according to mineralogical and geochemical and alteration affiliations- Boyle 1979, Sillitoe 1991a, 1993)
economic prototypes (classification by correlation with an existing deposit, Singer 1995)
tectonic (tectonic environment, Cox and Singer, 1986; tectonic sequences and orogenic cycles, Bache 1987)
(See K.H.Poulsen, F. Robert and Dube', Geological Classification of Canadian Gold Deposits, Bulletin 540, Geological Survey of Canada, Ottawa, 2000 for a fuller discussion of these general approaches and issues);
Semi-quantitative or selectively quantitative methods and related software are largely based on selective correlation or constraint of system characteristics and inputs:
geophysical data (magnetic, electromagnetic, induced polarization or IP) with experimentally- imputed spatial models (geometrical-geophysical conductor) and with geological inputs;
structural analyses of deformation domains;
geographic/ spatial analyses/ visualizations (GIS methods, 3D visualization technology) of selected regional- to deposit- scale characteristics (e.g. lithological, alteration, structural, known gold distributions) with imputed spatial proximities (characteristic analysis X-x,y,z);
geostatistical treatment of zone-scale gold distributions known and spatially imputed (X-x,y,z, X= gold);
thermobarometric (P-T-X) characterizations of multicomponent, multiphase (mineral-fluid-gas) equilibria (P-T curves, tie lines, intersections, equilibrium tangent planes, phase diagrams, pseudo sections) given (observed, experimentally derived, critically assessed, "internally consistent") thermodynamic data on specific mineral end-members and their solid solution, and given bulk compositions; related optimizations (multiple solid solutions, end-members; experimentally-derived, activity, free energy constraints; most directly for magmatic or metamorphic petrology but with constraints (P-T) for regional gold distributions
mass flux or geochemically differentiated / fractionation/ partitioning simulations (X-oxide, X-trace element, X-rare earth element/ REE, X-isotope, X-gold); species X distrtibution ratio analyses and diagrams (e.g. AFM diagrams); some with, some without thermobarometric (P-T) inputs;
elicited (prior) methods include subjective probability, expert, neural networks, fuzzy logic approaches as they correlate expert knowledge of gold distributions variously against expert knowledge of mineralogical, geochemical, alteration, lithological, structural or geophysical indicators (characteristic analysis, bias analysis X-x,y,z);
Intensive sampling, data collection, drilling and broader acquisition practices
Historical and intensive exploration, sampling, re-sampling; drilling, re-drilling; interpretation and re-interpretation; qualification and re-qualification/due diligence; and corporate acquisiton, disposition of "brownfield" to "greenfield" projects, of other major and junior companies, of related project portfolios are inevitable industry alternatives while the scientific state-of-the-art is improved.
Geoscience Issues
Issues of the predictive (-taxonomic) state-of-art for mineral deposits and related mineral exploration "indicators" are varied.
genetic classifications are limited in their ability to characterize physical conditions at the time of gold deposition with confidence; to clearly distinguish exclusive classes; and to maintain consistent terminology;
host rock classifications do not account for mineralization processes that are vein-related and not specific to lithology, nor do they account for lithological diversity; volcanic, sedimentary, plutonic or metamorphic processes which also play some part in the mineralization process; industry nomenclature will vary
geological classifications must accept lack of exclusivity in some classes - i.e. some deposits can be classified as being of more than one class;
geochemical/mineralogical classifications- where hydrothermal and wall-rock alteration processes are proposed as keys, such classification may constrain the lithological diversity issue of host rock classifications. Any hydrothermal and wall rock alteration classification again constrains interpretation of broader volcanic, sedimentary/placer, plutonic and metamorphic processes in mineralized or unmineralized areas; industry use of classification systems may vary with respect to analysis of mineralogical, geochemical data
economic prototyping of large, well-known ("world-class") deposits and the form of gold distribution, may not typify an intended class of deposits and may not allow classification of other, extraordinary deposits; unmineralized areas are not characterized;
tectonic classifications- scales of property assessment and regional tectonic characteristics vary by orders of magnitude and may suffer overlapping classification problems (whether pre-, syn-, post-orogenic). Detailed and regional characteristics may be loosely synthesized or not by different geologists working at different scales.
general (taxonomic) classifications may lack of measures of statistical significance for the classes or groupings proposed and yet may be used as inputs for more intensive (e.g. spatial, prospectivity) statistical models.
Semi-quantitative or selectively quantitative methods and related software are largely based on selective correlation or constraint of system characteristics and inputs from-
geophysical (indirect) methods require geological and spatial model inputs (with their own limitations) to define attenuation characteristics, to distinguish "noise" and to obtain a unique solution on conductor (etc.) configurations; extrapolations, interpolations or correlations may be less reliable with certain discontinuities or in some orientations; regional-scale geophysics offers some (experimental) control, but is costly and generally conducted or subsidized by government to support property-scale exploration activity;
structural analyses of deformation regimes are focused on mechanical properties of lithologies and changes from regional, system and system segment perspectives (controlled, in this respect), but may not be sufficiently predictive without other geological inputs. Identified structures may variable with respect to mineralization potential;
geographic/ spatial analyses/ visualizations (GIS methods) may impute spatial proximities where discontinuities are a specific problem for lode gold distributions. Generally, functional continuity is a precondition for mathematical and statistical models; for extrapolations or interpolations. Spurious correlations may be a problem with attributes related to trace, fractional or partial segments of the silicate system mass;
geostatistical and geomathematical treatments may impute spatial distributions of gold at zone-scale without regard for discontinuities; spatial models may be uncontrolled from experimental, regional, or deposit population perspectives; characterizations of mineral resources or reserves may not be explicit with respect to statistical significance or biases
thermobarometric characterizations of multi component, multiphase equilibria provide some constraints on thermodynamic estimations and some implications for predictive models of gold distributions but suffer from errors of "closure", nonsingular results and problems of retrograde reactions; P-T-X simulations may be incomplete with respect to other system processes which are also physicochemical (e.g. system deformation/ mechanical work; alteration/ system segmentation);
mass flux or geochemical differentiated / fractionation/ partitioning simulations may characterize mass transfers in systems or segments of systems; may impute system mass differentiation with minor or trace components (e.g. isotopes, REE /rare earth elements, enriched/depleted element levels in minerals, fluids); other system changes (physicochemical energy changes) may not be characterized; innumerable indicators could be specified, but reliability, statistical and predictive significance of any particular indicator for gold distributions may be issues. Used as a predictive indicator, gold (present in parts per billion or parts per million of the silicate mass) is notoriously misleading, circular and subject to biases.
elicited (prior) methods (subjective probability, expert, neural networks) may utilize weightings, inputs; incomplete or non-discrete characteristics (e.g. fuzzy logic) which may be judgmental or subjective. Subjective influences are normally constrained in statistical inference. In principle, minimum-bias estimators (and discrete characteristics) will have the greatest probability of constraining the sought parameter.
In practical terms taxonomic and semi-quantitative interpretation shortfalls force intensive and costly sampling, detailed analysis- with no small amount of regulatory oversight in spite of best (state-of-art, industry, NI43-101 etc.) practices. Fundamental research to characterize and reduce uncertainties and increased regulatory oversight are not disengaged. On the other hand, they are not obviously nor substantively (fiscally) linked despite repeated episodic, systemic deficiencies over decades, over history ("mining scam", mining "promotion", "fool's gold", "aqua regia" etc. lexicon).
Intensive sampling, data collection or broader acquisition practices - A simplistic, circular bias and positive "instance", "gold is where you find it", is deeply rooted despite research to develop better "predictive" methods. Other strategies to mitigate large cost and risks of development and exploration are widely evident :
 A conservative approach favors "brownfield" mining camps, areas known for "world class" discoveries, rather than risky "grassroots" prospects.
 Cash flow from mining, smelting and refining operations (major, integrated and mid-tier mining companies) or other industry yields some capital leverage for costly development and mine exploration. Commodity cycles may cause planning difficulties.
 Mine exploration can be balanced with local, regional or "grassroots" exploration. All can be balanced with company, commodity, financial and economic cycles, if anticipated.
 In-house exploration can be balanced with options and joint ventures with other companies and prospectors. The cost, competition and revenue-sharing for fewer, higher quality projects may be become higher than in-house exploration.
 Corporate acquisition strategies for known or presumed gold assets may be favoured and capitalized in billions of dollars and in time frames much shorter than the long exploration to production time-frame, or some commodity cycles; corporate planning is arguably clearer and public visibility greater, if not always to expectations
 Ability to draw from wider pools of risk capital derived by junior mining companies (thousands) from risk-seeking speculators/investors (millions) provide more resources. Other commodities and other, less cyclical sectors such as high technology, biotechnology, green technology may compete for such capital. Lotteries and gaming enterprises compete for risk seeking speculators, for the smallest outlays.
 Greater visibility to the investing and speculating public, international securities exchange listings can be double-edged. Deficiencies in the state-of-the-art, in historical and recent practices can be costly or damaging to industry, to investors, and to the profession. Episodic industry issues have heightened investor and regulatory sensitivities. Reporting and oversight have increased as a result of these. Liability issues may reach beneath the ceiling of a limited liability company, to individual prosecutions by a foreign jurisdiction. Ongoing securities regulation reform and integration suggests more complex corporate and individual governance.
 Special tax relief and fundamental geoscience research assistance have been long been provided to assist exploration and development. Exploration tax relief is not linked exploration activity (state-of-art understood), not to fundamental research.
 Despite (wider, professional, licensed etc.) utilization of scientists to gather and interpret fundamental data from commercial exploration activity, fundamental research funding is largely (not exclusively) provided to institutional groups restricted from exploration activity. Published results are available for exploration activity at nominal or no cost, but are not necessarily available from exploration activity (commercial confidential, competitive data). Industry-government-institutional collaborations, domestic and international may ocassionally address such gaps- in some cases across variations in jurisdictions, policies, practices and budgets. Strategic objectives of institutional, governmental and industrial sectors may not be aligned for knowledge improvement and "risk" reduction as quickly as regulatory reforms and needs for "securities" around the globe.
For information and contacts on mineral exploration activity
for the potential scope and impacts of deficient geoscience practices; of related securities industry and regulatory impacts browse
Last updated: February 15, 2010
|